CHRW

Historical Beat Rate and Post-Earnings Drift

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) has delivered an earnings beat in every one of the last eight reported quarters: a 100% beat rate (8/8), with an average earnings surprise of 9.5%. Over the same period, the average five-day price move in the trading days after earnings has been +5.55%, classified as an “up” drift. However, the four most recent reports show sharply different outcomes. The 2025-10-29 release delivered a one-day gain of +19.71% and a five-day gain of +18.36%; the 2026-01-28 release produced a one-day gain of +5.12% and a five-day gain of +7.85%; the 2026-04-29 release produced a 9.8% EPS beat but the stock fell -2.48% the next day and -9.57% over the following five days; and the most recent 2026-07-29 release produced a 5.2% EPS beat but the stock dropped -15.44% the next day and showed 0% change over the next five days. The headline average is positive, but individual events have repeatedly contradicted it.

Options-Flow Setup into the Nov. 4 Report

The next scheduled earnings release is 2026-11-04 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.68. As an Industrials / Integrated Freight & Logistics name, CHRW’s options flow ahead of that report can be shaped as much by freight-demand sentiment as by the EPS number itself. Traders typically watch whether the implied volatility of near-dated options rises into the event and whether the straddle-implied one-day move matches—or exceeds—the historical realized next-day range of -15.44% to +19.71% shown in the last four quarters. With the stock at $147.73, an RSI of 26.0, and the 50-day EMA at $184.48, options positioning may also reflect broader trend stress rather than a pure earnings wager. Changes in call/put volume, open interest shifts, and skew steepening ahead of Nov. 4 help reveal the market’s real expectation.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

Using the 100% beat rate and +5.55% average five-day drift as a baseline, not a forecast, a disciplined trader watches several things ahead of the 2026-11-04 report. First, compare the options market’s implied post-earnings move to the realized moves in this dataset. Second, track whether flow is net buying calls, buying puts, or selling both, because an RSI of 26.0 can attract mean-reversion buyers and momentum sellers simultaneously. Third, contrast the $1.68 consensus with the actual EPS progression of $1.40, $1.23, $1.35, $1.61 and any management commentary on freight volumes and margins. Finally, watch the price action immediately after the release: the last two quarters both beat estimates yet produced -2.48% and -15.44% next-day reactions, a clear reminder that beating the consensus has not guaranteed a higher stock price in this cycle.

For a deeper dive into CHRW’s setup, including analyst-revision trends, price-target dispersion, Smart Score, and cross-asset options flow, review the full institutional verdict on the ticker page.